From 2008 to 2018, almost everyone who bought property in Chinese first-tier cities completed an asset transition. Not a few people. An entire generation. Many didn’t have special investment abilities. They just bought a property, and it became their life’s most successful…
Microeconomics as a Decision Operating System Five Tools for Resource Allocation: Entry, Investment, Environment, Position, and Exit Microeconomics Isn’t What You Think When most people hear “microeconomics,” they think GDP, inflation, policy, macro forecasting. Finance stuff.…
Treat Yourself as a Company: A Capital Allocation Audit The Era Reprices Individuals Most people have never examined themselves from an investor’s perspective. We do career planning, learning plans, life planning. But few of us examine our capital structure like a CFO. We work…
把自己当公司：一个30岁技术人的资本配置审计 第一幕：时代重新定价个人 我们做职业规划、学习计划、人生规划，但很少有人像 CFO 一样审视自己的资本结构。我们用员工思维努力，却在用资本市场规则被定价。这种错配，在 AI 时代被放大了。 定价机制的改变是结构性的。过去看时间投入：你工作了多少小时、多努力、投入了多少时间，大致是时间 × 努力 = 收入。现在看资产结构：你有什么可复用的资产、能产生什么杠杆、资本配置能力如何，更接近资产结构 × 杠杆 = 价值。市场越来越少问「工作了多少小时」，越来越多问「你的资产结构是什么、期权有多少、资本配置能力如何」。…
A Counterintuitive Will Buffett’s will allocation: 90% S&P 500 index fund, 10% US short-term treasury bonds. This gets quoted constantly but rarely understood. The interesting question is not “why is the S&P good?” It’s: why would someone who spent a lifetime actively…
投资的本质不是找最高收益，是在结构性约束下构建一个能持续复利的系统。下文沿着一条逻辑链展开：资源怎么跨时间配置、用什么工具、投在哪个系统、为什么收敛到标普500、怎么分散风险、怎么组合、怎么执行。 巴菲特那个反直觉的遗嘱 巴菲特给后代留的配置很简单：90% 标普500指数基金，10% 美国短期国债。 这句话被引用很多，被真正想透的很少。 值得琢磨的不是"标普为什么好"，是：一个一辈子做主动投资的人，为什么最终给家人留了一个极度被动、甚至有点无聊的方案？…
Most investors optimize for returns. But compound interest only works for systems that stay alive long enough to compound.
“Should I buy gold now?” “How much return should I expect this year?” “What’s the best investment right now?”
These sound reasonable. Everyone asks them. But they’re built on a hidden assumption: investment is about maximizing returns.
多数投资者一上来就问"买什么回报高"，但复利只发生在那些能一直待在牌桌上的人身上。 问题从一开始就问错了 “现在该买黄金吗？”“今年能赚多少？”“什么资产最好？” 这些问题听起来合理，底下藏着同一个假设：投资就是追回报。 我以前也这么想。后来发现一个更根本的问题被忽略了：你怎么在几十年里一直留在场上、持续增长？ 多数投资建议都在回答"买什么"，优化的是回报。但如果你没办法在游戏里待够久，那些回报跟你没关系。…